Tuesday, June 9, 2015

ৱি ডণ্ট ন' ৱাট ইজ ৰং ৱিড ইকনমি!

কিছুদিন আগেয়ে মুদ্রাবাদ(monetarism)ৰ সমস্যা সম্পর্কে ইয়াতে এটা নোট লিখিছিলোঁ। http://oxantoprohor.blogspot.in/2015/05/blog-post.html

 সেই প্রসংগতে এই লেখনীটো পঢ়ি চাব পাৰে।

আধুনিক পুঁজিবাদী অর্থনীতি একোখনৰ মূল সমস্যা হৈছে – বিনিয়োগৰ সমস্যা। অর্থাৎ পুঁজিপতিয়ে যদি পণ্য তথা সেৱা উৎপাদনৰ কামত পুঁজি বিনিয়োগ নকৰি টকাৰ পাহাৰৰ ওপৰত বহি থাকে, বা অনুৎপাদনশীল বিত্তীয় সঁজুলিসমূহতেই পুঁজি বিনিয়োগ কৰি কৃত্রিম বেলুন ফুলাই থাকে (য’ত লাভৰ হাৰ বেছি কিন্তু যি বাস্তব অর্থনীতিখনক কোনোপধ্যেই সহায় নকৰে), তেতিয়া দেশৰ চৰকাৰসমূহো নিঃসহায় হৈ পৰে। উৎপাদনশীল কার্যকলাপ নোহোৱাৰ ফলত নিয়োগ কমি আহে, ৰাইজৰ ক্রয় ক্ষমতাও কমি আহে, ফলত পণ্য/সেৱাৰ ক্রয়ো কমি আহে। অর্থনীতিখন স্থবিৰ হৈ পৰে।

মুদ্রাবাদৰ মতে চৰকাৰে ক্রেডিট লাইন খুলি, কর্পৰেটৰ ওপৰত থকা কৰ হ্রাস কৰি, বা শ্রম আইনসমূহ ঢিলা কৰি দিলেই হ’বঃ পুঁজিয়ে নিজেই আহি বিনিয়োগ কৰিব।

পিছে কার্যক্ষেত্রত বিশ্বৰ সমস্ত উন্নত দেশসমূহতেই বিনিয়োগৰ এই সমস্যাটোৱে দেখা দিছে। মুদ্রাবাদৰ পৰামর্শসমূহ আজি অচল হৈ পৰিছে। হেজাৰ কাবৌ কৰকঃ পুঁজিয়ে দেখোন উৎপাদনশীল কার্যত বিনিয়োগ নকৰেহে নকৰে!! ইউৰোপ, জাপান, কোৰিয়া -সকলোতে একে অবস্থা।

জৱাহৰলাল নেহৰু অধীন ভাৰতৰ ৩ শতাংশ বার্ষিক বিকাশ হাৰক এসময়ত বহুতেই ‘হিন্দু গ্রথ ৰেট’ বুলি ইতিকিং কৰিছিল। এতিয়া পিছে বপুৰা সকলো উন্নত দেশতেই তিনি শতাংশলৈ অধিক বিকাশ হাৰ নোহোৱা অৱস্থা!

 চোভিয়েট ইউনিয়ন বাৰু বিফলেই হলঃ তেনে এটা মডেল আজি সম্ভৱপৰো নহয়, বাঞ্চনীয়ও নহয়। কিন্তু সাম্প্রতিক নব্য-উদাৰবাদী পুঁজিবাদৰ নিজৰে আজি কি অৱস্থা? নব্য-উদাৰবাদ, মুদ্রাবাদৰ গোড়ামিক আজি সফল মডেল বুলি কব পৰা যাবনে? ইয়াৰ কোনো বিকল্প কেনেধৰণৰ হব পাৰে??


..................... 


South Korea working to boost demand





South Korea’s finance minister has criticised leading world economies for not doing enough to counter a slump in global economic growth and said Seoul was working on a “comprehensive package” of measures to boost domestic demand.


Choi Kyung-hwan, South Korea’s deputy prime minister and finance minister, called on G20 nations to work together to find ways to revive economic dynamism, adding that the world faced a challenge similar to that leading to the 2008 financial crisis.


“If you go to G20 and central bank governors’ meetings, there are a lot of good discussions . . . but if you look at the results and the actions that take place it is not fully satisfying,” Mr Choi said. “In that aspect there should be a deeper co-operation that takes place on a global level,” he said.
His comments came after the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development last week slashed its forecast for global growth to 3.1 per cent for 2015, down from November’s forecast of 3.7 per cent.

The OECD also warned that weak investment and disappointing productivity risk keeping the world stuck in a “low-level” equilibrium.
South Korea has not been spared the broader global slowdown, with exports sliding 10.9 per cent in May from the same month a year earlier and imports falling 15.3 per cent.
Mr Choi said there was a “possibility” that Seoul would revise down its official forecast for GDP growth for 2015 to “the low 3 per cent range” from the current 3.8 per cent forecast.

Regarding the global economy, Mr Choi said the biggest conundrum for central bankers and economists was why growth was slowing in spite of the “unprecedented” laxity of monetary policy worldwide.


“Everyone is trying to find their way — it is a situation in which nobody really has a clear answer as to what should be done,” Mr Choi said, noting the recent thinking on “secular stagnation” put forward by Lawrence Summers, the Harvard academic and former US Treasury secretary.
Such puzzles notwithstanding, Mr Choi said, it was clear that a policy response was desirable. He called on leading economies to boost economic growth by investing more on infrastructure, particularly by enlisting the help of the private sector.
Promising a comprehensive package to combat ebbing growth by July, he said: “We want to solidify the recovery and [so] . . . until we see a clear recovery trend taking place, we believe we need an expansionary macro-stance with regards to the economy.”
Since becoming finance minister last summer, Mr Choi has introduced tax measures aimed at pushing corporations to use their bulging cash piles for increased investment and dividends and overseen the deregulation of the mortgage market. While the latter changes boosted the property market, they also led to a rise in an already high household debt burden, seen by economists as a key weak point in South Korea’s economy.
The specific elements of the package planned for July are still under discussion, but a supplementary budget was one of the measures under consideration, Mr Choi said. There was also room to expand monetary support, he added, reiterating an argument that has seen him accused of putting pressure on the legally independent Bank of Korea.

“Ultimately, we are going to look into further measures that can be taken to try to promote more private investment into the economy,” he said.
 
Additional reporting by Simon Mundy in Seoul

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